Vikings offense already has a key characteristic that can help J.J. McCarthy hit the ground running

Now that the draft door is shut on the Minnesota Vikings and its 2024 class, it's all about what comes next in terms of OTAs, minicamps, training camp, and yes, the regular season.

It all starts this weekend, with rookie minicamps. Most eyes will be on the Vikings' pair of first-rounders in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and EDGE Dallas Turner - and for good reason. Both players represent, hopefully, top-notch building blocks for the next decade. If they turn out to be what Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell imagine, then the franchise will be in very, very good shape.

When it comes to McCarthy, specifically, he's in a really good spot regarding the Vikings offense. For starters, he has one of the league's best tackle duos in Brian O'Neill and Christian Darrisaw. The interior is pretty good, even with one of the guard spots in question. Then, there are plenty of high-caliber playmakers at each skill position: Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison at receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, and Aaron Jones at running back. 

But, it's O'Connell's philosophy and system that really puts McCarthy on the path for success. A former quarterback himself, O'Connell runs a system that is QB-friendly and relies on useful tactics such as play-action to help his signal-callers a) get a leg-up on the defense, b) develop an effective rhythm, and c) find open throwing lanes.

It's that last part, in particular, that really helps Vikings quarterbacks. Especially throwing lanes over the middle, which is not only crucial to offensive success in today's NFL, but it's something O'Connell relies upon, heavily, as you can see below:

How often the Vikings throw in-between the numbers under Kevin O'Connell

Sports Info Solutions

In Kevin O'Connell's system, McCarthy will be set up to throw with consistent rhythm on defined concepts, especially to the middle of the field. He completed 75.3% of his passes on throws inside the numbers last season at Michigan, including 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. McCarthy can heat up his pass velocity to drive the ball, attacking tight windows off layered reads -- especially with play-action elements rolled in. No NFL team used play-action more than the Vikings in 2023 (30.6% of dropbacks).

As a passer, McCarthy can target all three levels of the field -- short, medium and deep -- and he can create outside of structure when necessary. But it's the core passing/play-action concepts in O'Connell's offense that really make this fit work. - Matt Bowen, ESPN

The Vikings offense made an impressive jump into the top-6 in 2023 and that was with Nick Mullens throwing eight interceptions over the middle of the field. Kirk Cousins was ripping it up before tearing his Achilles against the Green Bay Packers, tossing 14 (of his 18) touchdowns to three interceptions.

Things get even better for Vikings QBs when throwing play-action passes over the middle, too:

Vikings' stats when throwing play-action over the middle of the field

Sports Info Solutions

Obviously, things weren't as efficient in 2022 as they were in 2023, but Vikings QBs still threw six touchdowns to two interceptions when attempting PAPs over the middle in '22, compared to a 6/0 mark in 2023. In all, quarterbacks have thrown 12 touchdowns to two interceptions over the course of 210 attempts, which comes out to a 5.7% touchdown/1.0% interception rate.

It's not a surprise that three of the top-5 scoring teams in 2022 (Eagles, Chiefs, Lions) were also top-5 in PAP efficiency over the middle. In 2023, it was much of the same, as the Ravens, Lions, and 49ers were top-5 in both categories, per SIS. It's a crucial trait that needs to be maximized to the fullest in today's game.

In the NFL, you have to be able throw over the middle of the field as both an offense and a QB to be successful. The top offenses in the league (SF, DET, LAR) are built off passing concepts in-between the hashes. The main reason for that is because defenses rarely play single high safety looks that take away the middle of the field. Offenses will work zone running games to stretch a defense horizontally before hitting gashes over the middle of the field as the defense tries to widen against the run. 

For a QB, throwing over the middle is key because it unlocks the offense’s maximum capabilities. The reason it’s so hard, is because you have to be able to anticipate throwing windows before they happen since everything is tight and condensed opposed to out breaking routes. If the QB cannot anticipate and layer throws over the middle, the offense is now very limited in their passing concepts, and defenses can play with an extra defender in the box and double vertical threats on the outside. -  Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports

It's easy to see why McCarthy can hit the ground running in Minnesota: The team has the playmakers, the system, and the coaching staff to put him in the right place to succeed. And if his traits translate like many expect them to - then the McCarthy era could begin as soon as 2024.